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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ian Machado Garry won · U-DEC R3

Elo1505

Elo1541

Ian Machado Garry editorial illustration

Neil MagnyvsIan Machado GarryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Saturday, August 19, 2023Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Ian Machado Garry won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsIan Machado Garry: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ian Machado Garry wins(74.6%)

Actual result: Ian Machado Garry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian Machado Garry at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ian Machado Garry has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Neil Magny has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Ian Machado Garry

Blue Corner

+380

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-500

(83%)

1505

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Ian Machado GarryW2 streak

oldest →

vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24

vs Michael Page · Jun 24

vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24

vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25

vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricIan Machado Garry

3.40

Strikes / min

4.78

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

51%

Strike defense

52%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.92

55%

Takedown defense

80%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+1.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyIan Machado Garry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -35.4|Blue +35.4

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetIan Machado Garry

By target zone

24% acc · 37%

Head

36% acc · 35%

64% acc · 26%

Body

94% acc · 18%

71% acc · 37%

Leg

100% acc · 47%

By position

41% acc · 93%

Distance

60% acc · 92%

40% acc · 7%

Clinch

80% acc · 4%

Ground

60% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Ian Machado Garry rounds

Round 1Ian Machado Garry edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:05

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 2Ian Machado Garry edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:05

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Ian Machado Garry edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 66

Sig Strikes

91 / 150

42%

Sig Str %

60.3%

51 / 93

Total Strikes

111 / 171

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 2

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

2:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ian Machado Garry	20 / 32	33 / 45	1 / 1
1	Neil Magny	8 / 24	22 / 40	0 / 1
2	Ian Machado Garry	31 / 53	35 / 57	0 / 0
2	Neil Magny	11 / 27	15 / 32	0 / 1
3	Ian Machado Garry	40 / 65	43 / 69	1 / 1
3	Neil Magny	8 / 15	14 / 21	0 / 0

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Ian Machado Garry

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8