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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · U-DEC

Elo1505

Elo1478

Neil MagnyvsGeoff NealUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · Saturday, May 8, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

U-DEC

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsGeoff Neal: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Geoff Neal has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).
Neil Magny has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Geoff Neal

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1505

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

5'11"

203.2 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Geoff NealL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23

vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25

KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricGeoff Neal

3.40

Strikes / min

5.02

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

5.50

51%

Strike defense

57%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.54

55%

Takedown defense

87%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyGeoff Neal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Geoff Neal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.6|Blue -27.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -32.0|Blue +32.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetGeoff Neal

By target zone

24% acc · 62%

Head

45% acc · 86%

69% acc · 33%

Body

83% acc · 14%

75% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

28% acc · 82%

Distance

48% acc · 86%

70% acc · 13%

Clinch

44% acc · 11%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Geoff Neal rounds

Round 1Geoff Neal edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:33

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:36Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:49

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control0:21

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 174

Sig Strikes

35 / 73

30%

Sig Str %

48%

89 / 214

Total Strikes

37 / 76

2 / 10

TDs

1 / 2

19.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:43

Ctrl Time

3:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Geoff Neal	11 / 26	12 / 28	0 / 1
1	Neil Magny	9 / 31	27 / 53	0 / 3
2	Geoff Neal	14 / 28	14 / 28	1 / 1
2	Neil Magny	14 / 53	21 / 62	1 / 3
3	Geoff Neal	10 / 19	11 / 20	0 / 0
3	Neil Magny	32 / 90	41 / 99	1 / 4

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Geoff Neal

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14