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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · U-DEC R3

Elo1505

Elo1356

Neil MagnyvsGasan UmalatovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · Saturday, February 1, 2014Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gasan Umalatov has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Neil Magny has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Gasan Umalatov

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1505

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

203.2 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Gasan UmalatovL2 streak

oldest →

vs Paulo Thiago · May 14

vs Cathal Pendred · Oct 14

vs Viscardi Andrade · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricGasan Umalatov

3.40

Strikes / min

2.23

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.10

51%

Strike defense

59%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.75

55%

Takedown defense

90%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 2.83 — meaningful gap-1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyGasan Umalatov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Gasan Umalatov(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +149.7|Blue -149.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -47.8|Blue +47.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetGasan Umalatov

By target zone

25% acc · 66%

Head

25% acc · 35%

67% acc · 17%

Body

70% acc · 41%

80% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

28% acc · 79%

Distance

42% acc · 85%

94% acc · 21%

Clinch

60% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Gasan Umalatov rounds

Round 1Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:53

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 2Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:30

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:18

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 218

Sig Strikes

34 / 76

32.3%

Sig Str %

46.7%

105 / 259

Total Strikes

38 / 80

1 / 7

TDs

2 / 8

8.3%

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

2:41

Ctrl Time

2:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gasan Umalatov	6 / 12	6 / 12	1 / 3
1	Neil Magny	20 / 70	25 / 79	1 / 4
2	Gasan Umalatov	10 / 20	12 / 22	0 / 2
2	Neil Magny	27 / 66	50 / 91	0 / 2
3	Gasan Umalatov	18 / 44	20 / 46	1 / 3
3	Neil Magny	24 / 82	30 / 89	0 / 1

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Gasan Umalatov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4