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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · U-DEC R3

Elo1505

Elo1363

Neil MagnyvsErick SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · Sunday, August 23, 2015Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsErick Silva: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at +170 American odds

+$170 profit

$270 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Erick Silva threatens submissions; Neil Magny has lost 46% of fights by sub.
Neil Magny has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Erick Silva

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1505

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

203.2 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Erick SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Josh Koscheck · Mar 15

KOvs Nordine Taleb · Mar 16

SUBvs Luan Chagas · Sep 16

KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 17

vs Jordan Mein · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricErick Silva

3.40

Strikes / min

2.50

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.18

51%

Strike defense

49%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.85

55%

Takedown defense

56%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 2.64 — meaningful gap-1.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyErick Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Erick Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +142.3|Blue -142.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetErick Silva

By target zone

49% acc · 87%

Head

28% acc · 34%

86% acc · 9%

Body

63% acc · 17%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

93% acc · 48%

By position

46% acc · 68%

Distance

49% acc · 93%

64% acc · 10%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

79% acc · 22%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Erick Silva rounds

Round 1Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns3

Control1:03

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control2:20

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control0:40

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 131

Sig Strikes

29 / 59

51.7%

Sig Str %

40%

132 / 204

Total Strikes

37 / 68

4 / 9

TDs

3 / 4

41.5%

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:03

Ctrl Time

2:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Erick Silva	1 / 5	7 / 11	1 / 2
1	Neil Magny	18 / 28	53 / 69	3 / 6
2	Erick Silva	8 / 25	10 / 28	1 / 1
2	Neil Magny	14 / 39	30 / 57	0 / 0
3	Erick Silva	20 / 29	20 / 29	1 / 1
3	Neil Magny	36 / 64	49 / 78	1 / 3

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Erick Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15