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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · SUB R3

Elo1505

Elo1520

Neil MagnyvsDaniel RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Saturday, November 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:33

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Rodriguez (53.5%).
Neil Magny has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Daniel Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1505

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'1"

203.2 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Daniel RodriguezW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24

vs Alex Morono · Oct 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25

vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricDaniel Rodriguez

3.40

Strikes / min

7.20

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

5.40

51%

Strike defense

57%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.51

55%

Takedown defense

64%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyDaniel Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.0|Blue +15.0

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetDaniel Rodriguez

By target zone

45% acc · 67%

Head

47% acc · 55%

76% acc · 28%

Body

88% acc · 23%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

49% acc · 81%

Distance

61% acc · 95%

71% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Daniel Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns2

Control1:37

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 2Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:27

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns3

Control2:04

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 109

Sig Strikes

66 / 108

50.3%

Sig Str %

59.3%

106 / 169

Total Strikes

71 / 113

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

70.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:08

Ctrl Time

1:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Rodriguez	20 / 36	21 / 37	0 / 1	0
1	Neil Magny	22 / 39	38 / 59	2 / 3	0
2	Daniel Rodriguez	35 / 53	37 / 55	0 / 0	0
2	Neil Magny	27 / 52	33 / 59	0 / 0	0
3	Daniel Rodriguez	11 / 19	13 / 21	0 / 0	0
3	Neil Magny	8 / 18	35 / 51	3 / 4	1

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Daniel Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14