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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Neil Magny won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1505
Neil Magny editorial illustration
Elo1367

Neil MagnyvsCraig WhiteUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · Sunday, May 27, 2018Liverpool, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:32

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(73.3%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Neil Magny has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Neil Magny has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny
Red Corner
VS
Craig White
Blue Corner
-750
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+525
(16%)
1505
Elo
1367
38
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'2"
203.2 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny
oldest →
L
KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24
L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24
W
KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25
W
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25
L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25
latest
Craig White
oldest →
L
vs Diego Sanchez · Sep 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricCraig White
3.40
Strikes / min
1.23
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.28
51%
Strike defense
39%
2.17
TDs / 15 min
0.00
55%
Takedown defense
50%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.96Δ 3.01 — meaningful gap-2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1619 vs 1500Strikes45.4 vs —Takedowns2.3 vs —Sub Atts0.28 vs —Form0.3 vs 0.0
Neil MagnyCraig White

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Neil Magny(10 fights)Craig White(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.0|Blue -138.0
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -47.3|Blue +47.3
Grappler Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetCraig White

By target zone

14
64% acc · 78%
Head
1
10% acc · 17%
3
50% acc · 17%
Body
2
100% acc · 33%
1
100% acc · 6%
Leg
3
60% acc · 50%

By position

2
22% acc · 11%
Distance
5
42% acc · 83%
3
100% acc · 17%
Clinch
1
20% acc · 17%
13
76% acc · 72%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Neil Magny rounds
0
even
0
Craig White rounds
Round 1Neil Magny edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control1:57
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:49Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
18 / 29
Sig Strikes
6 / 17
62%
Sig Str %
35%
40 / 53
Total Strikes
13 / 28
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 2
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:57
Ctrl Time
1:49

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Craig White6 / 1713 / 280 / 20
1Neil Magny18 / 2940 / 530 / 20

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights37

Craig White

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2