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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Carlos Prates won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1505

Elo1567

Neil MagnyvsCarlos PratesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Saturday, November 9, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Prates won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:50

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsCarlos Prates: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Carlos Prates wins(72.5%)

Actual result: Carlos Prates wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Prates at -800 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Prates enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Carlos Prates has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Carlos Prates (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Carlos Prates

Blue Corner

+550

(15%)

Vegas Odds

-800

(89%)

1505

Elo

1567

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'3"

Height

6'1"

203.2 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Mike Malott · Jan 24

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Carlos PratesW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Li Jingliang · Aug 24

vs Ian Machado Garry · Apr 25

KOvs Geoff Neal · Aug 25

KOvs Leon Edwards · Nov 25

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricCarlos Prates

3.40

Strikes / min

4.41

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.30

51%

Strike defense

47%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.18

55%

Takedown defense

77%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyCarlos Prates

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Carlos Prates(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -62.1|Blue +62.1

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetCarlos Prates

By target zone

41% acc · 70%

Head

53% acc · 75%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 8%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

67% acc · 17%

By position

47% acc · 90%

Distance

53% acc · 83%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Carlos Prates rounds

Round 1Carlos Prates edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:31

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:09Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 20

Sig Strikes

12 / 21

50%

Sig Str %

57%

23 / 33

Total Strikes

13 / 22

0 / 7

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:31

Ctrl Time

1:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carlos Prates	12 / 21	13 / 22	1 / 1	0
1	Neil Magny	10 / 20	23 / 33	0 / 7	0

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Carlos Prates

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7