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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · U-DEC R3

Elo1505

Elo1368

Neil MagnyvsAlex GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le · Saturday, August 23, 2014Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsAlex Garcia: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Neil Magny has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Alex Garcia

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1505

Elo

1368

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'9"

203.2 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Alex GarciaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mike Pyle · Dec 16

vs Tim Means · Jun 17

SUBvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 17

vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricAlex Garcia

3.40

Strikes / min

1.81

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.03

51%

Strike defense

59%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

3.72

55%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 2.18 — meaningful gap-1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyAlex Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Alex Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.0|Blue -137.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetAlex Garcia

By target zone

32% acc · 46%

Head

11% acc · 80%

86% acc · 15%

Body

25% acc · 20%

94% acc · 38%

Leg

By position

31% acc · 41%

Distance

12% acc · 80%

94% acc · 44%

Clinch

0% acc

60% acc · 15%

Ground

25% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Alex Garcia rounds

Round 1Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control3:15

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:25

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:53Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:20

1Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 79

Sig Strikes

5 / 39

50%

Sig Str %

12.3%

130 / 175

Total Strikes

27 / 68

3 / 6

TDs

3 / 7

44.3%

TD %

41.5%

Sub Att

Rev

4:00

Ctrl Time

6:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Garcia	1 / 14	10 / 24	0 / 0
1	Neil Magny	8 / 18	49 / 60	2 / 2
2	Alex Garcia	3 / 18	6 / 23	1 / 3
2	Neil Magny	18 / 40	36 / 59	0 / 1
3	Alex Garcia	1 / 7	11 / 21	2 / 4
3	Neil Magny	13 / 21	45 / 56	1 / 3

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Alex Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10