← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Navajo Stirling won · U-DEC R3

Elo1600

Elo1482

Navajo StirlingvsTuco TokkosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · Saturday, December 14, 2024Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Navajo Stirling won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNavajo Stirling: Elusive strikervsTuco Tokkos: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Navajo Stirling wins(79.9%)

Actual result: Navajo Stirling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Navajo Stirling at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Navajo Stirling enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Navajo Stirling has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Navajo Stirling has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Navajo Stirling

Red Corner

Tuco Tokkos

Blue Corner

-750

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+525

(16%)

1600

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Navajo StirlingW4 streak

oldest →

vs Ivan Erslan · May 25

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Sep 25

KOvs Bruno Lopes · Mar 26

KOvs Ion Cutelaba · Jun 26

latest

Tuco Tokkos

oldest →

SUBvs Oumar Sy · May 24

SUBvs Junior Tafa · Jul 25

DECvs Ivan Erslan · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Navajo StirlingMetricTuco Tokkos

6.25

Strikes / min

2.12

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

4.27

58%

Strike defense

46%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

4.21

82%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.58Δ 5.73 — meaningful gap-2.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Navajo StirlingTuco Tokkos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Navajo Stirling(5 fights)Tuco Tokkos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +117.6|Blue -117.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Navajo StirlingTargetTuco Tokkos

By target zone

35% acc · 42%

Head

26% acc · 56%

74% acc · 47%

Body

100% acc · 16%

73% acc · 10%

Leg

60% acc · 28%

By position

49% acc · 90%

Distance

35% acc · 88%

62% acc · 10%

Clinch

40% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Navajo Stirling rounds

even

Tuco Tokkos rounds

Round 1Navajo Stirling edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:23

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:29Control

Round 3Navajo Stirling edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:31

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 155

Sig Strikes

32 / 90

51%

Sig Str %

35.7%

99 / 181

Total Strikes

34 / 93

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 9

—

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

0:54

Ctrl Time

3:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tuco Tokkos	10 / 24	10 / 24	0 / 2
1	Navajo Stirling	21 / 57	24 / 62	0 / 0
2	Tuco Tokkos	10 / 35	12 / 37	3 / 5
2	Navajo Stirling	22 / 35	25 / 39	0 / 0
3	Tuco Tokkos	12 / 31	12 / 32	0 / 2
3	Navajo Stirling	35 / 63	50 / 80	0 / 0

Navajo Stirling

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights6

Tuco Tokkos

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3