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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Navajo Stirling won · U-DEC R3

Elo1600

Elo1515

Navajo StirlingvsRodolfo BellatoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Saturday, September 27, 2025Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Navajo Stirling won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNavajo Stirling: Elusive strikervsRodolfo Bellato: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Navajo Stirling wins(65.1%)

Actual result: Navajo Stirling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Navajo Stirling at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Navajo Stirling enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Navajo Stirling has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Navajo Stirling has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Navajo Stirling

Red Corner

Rodolfo Bellato

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1600

Elo

1515

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Navajo StirlingW4 streak

oldest →

vs Tuco Tokkos · Dec 24

vs Ivan Erslan · May 25

KOvs Bruno Lopes · Mar 26

KOvs Ion Cutelaba · Jun 26

latest

Rodolfo Bellato

oldest →

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Dec 23

vs Jimmy Crute · Feb 25

vs Paul Craig · Jun 25

KOvs Luke Fernandez · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Navajo StirlingMetricRodolfo Bellato

6.25

Strikes / min

5.37

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

5.86

58%

Strike defense

46%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

1.38

82%

Takedown defense

94%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.58Δ 4.07 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Navajo StirlingRodolfo Bellato

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Navajo Stirling(5 fights)Rodolfo Bellato(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +84.8|Blue -84.8

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Navajo StirlingTargetRodolfo Bellato

By target zone

43% acc · 54%

Head

35% acc · 49%

66% acc · 43%

Body

63% acc · 28%

67% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

48% acc · 86%

Distance

48% acc · 91%

83% acc · 12%

Clinch

67% acc · 9%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Navajo Stirling rounds

even

Rodolfo Bellato rounds

Round 1Navajo Stirling edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:58

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Navajo Stirling edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:52

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:03

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

81 / 158

Sig Strikes

43 / 89

49.7%

Sig Str %

45%

101 / 193

Total Strikes

62 / 111

1 / 4

TDs

2 / 6

33.3%

TD %

60%

Sub Att

Rev

3:53

Ctrl Time

2:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rodolfo Bellato	15 / 33	20 / 38	0 / 0
1	Navajo Stirling	37 / 62	41 / 67	0 / 2
2	Rodolfo Bellato	6 / 19	19 / 34	1 / 1
2	Navajo Stirling	16 / 39	31 / 68	1 / 1
3	Rodolfo Bellato	22 / 37	23 / 39	1 / 5
3	Navajo Stirling	28 / 57	29 / 58	0 / 1

Navajo Stirling

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights6

Rodolfo Bellato

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5