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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Navajo Stirling won · U-DEC R3

Elo1600

Elo1485

Navajo StirlingvsIvan ErslanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · Saturday, May 10, 2025Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Navajo Stirling won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Navajo Stirling wins(90.5%)

Actual result: Navajo Stirling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Navajo Stirling at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Navajo Stirling enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Navajo Stirling has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Navajo Stirling has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Navajo Stirling

Red Corner

Ivan Erslan

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1600

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Navajo StirlingW4 streak

oldest →

vs Tuco Tokkos · Dec 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Sep 25

KOvs Bruno Lopes · Mar 26

KOvs Ion Cutelaba · Jun 26

latest

Ivan Erslan

oldest →

vs Ion Cutelaba · Sep 24

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Sep 25

DECvs Tuco Tokkos · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Navajo StirlingMetricIvan Erslan

6.25

Strikes / min

2.55

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

5.01

58%

Strike defense

53%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.45

82%

Takedown defense

61%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.58Δ 6.04 — meaningful gap-2.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Navajo StirlingIvan Erslan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Navajo Stirling(5 fights)Ivan Erslan(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +115.4|Blue -115.4

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Navajo StirlingTargetIvan Erslan

By target zone

37% acc · 49%

Head

31% acc · 78%

65% acc · 24%

Body

78% acc · 19%

79% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

46% acc · 76%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

75% acc · 3%

Clinch

57% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Navajo Stirling rounds

even

Ivan Erslan rounds

Round 1Navajo Stirling edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Navajo Stirling edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control1:16

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:41Control

Round 3Navajo Stirling edged it

Sig. strikes60

Takedowns1

Control1:45

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

110 / 225

Sig Strikes

36 / 100

47.3%

Sig Str %

36%

124 / 243

Total Strikes

63 / 129

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 3

58%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:01

Ctrl Time

1:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ivan Erslan	12 / 30	12 / 30	0 / 0
1	Navajo Stirling	31 / 76	31 / 76	0 / 0
2	Ivan Erslan	11 / 34	27 / 50	0 / 2
2	Navajo Stirling	19 / 40	27 / 51	2 / 3
3	Ivan Erslan	13 / 36	24 / 49	0 / 1
3	Navajo Stirling	60 / 109	66 / 116	1 / 2

Navajo Stirling

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights6

Ivan Erslan

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3