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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Navajo Stirling won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1600

Elo1470

Navajo StirlingvsBruno LopesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Saturday, March 28, 2026Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Navajo Stirling won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:05

Style matchupNavajo Stirling: Elusive strikervsBruno Lopes: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Navajo Stirling wins(74.5%)

Actual result: Navajo Stirling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Navajo Stirling at -440 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Navajo Stirling enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Bruno Lopes has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Navajo Stirling has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Navajo Stirling

Red Corner

Bruno Lopes

Blue Corner

-440

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1600

Elo

1470

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Navajo StirlingW4 streak

oldest →

vs Tuco Tokkos · Dec 24

vs Ivan Erslan · May 25

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Sep 25

KOvs Ion Cutelaba · Jun 26

latest

Bruno Lopes

oldest →

vs Magomed Gadzhiyasulov · Jan 25

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Navajo StirlingMetricBruno Lopes

6.25

Strikes / min

2.88

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

4.21

58%

Strike defense

54%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

1.93

82%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.58Δ 4.91 — meaningful gap-1.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Navajo StirlingBruno Lopes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Navajo Stirling(5 fights)Bruno Lopes(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +129.9|Blue -129.9

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Navajo StirlingTargetBruno Lopes

By target zone

41% acc · 48%

Head

36% acc · 54%

78% acc · 33%

Body

67% acc · 21%

67% acc · 19%

Leg

58% acc · 25%

By position

45% acc · 68%

Distance

40% acc · 82%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

83% acc · 18%

90% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Navajo Stirling rounds

even

Bruno Lopes rounds

Round 1Navajo Stirling edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:08

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 2Navajo Stirling edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control1:23

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 119

Sig Strikes

28 / 63

51.5%

Sig Str %

44%

90 / 157

Total Strikes

36 / 71

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 8

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:31

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bruno Lopes	16 / 36	23 / 43	0 / 4
1	Navajo Stirling	22 / 54	23 / 57	0 / 0
2	Bruno Lopes	12 / 27	13 / 28	0 / 4
2	Navajo Stirling	41 / 65	67 / 100	0 / 0

Navajo Stirling

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights6

Bruno Lopes

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3