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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Muhammad Naimov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1543

Elo1514

Nathaniel WoodvsMuhammad NaimovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Saturday, October 21, 2023Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Muhammad Naimov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNathaniel Wood: Pressure fightervsMuhammad Naimov: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Nathaniel Wood wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Muhammad Naimov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nathaniel Wood at -360 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nathaniel Wood enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Nathaniel Wood has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Nathaniel Wood

Red Corner

Muhammad Naimov

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1543

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nathaniel WoodW5 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Fili · Jul 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Jul 24

vs Morgan Charriere · Mar 25

vs Jose Delgado · Oct 25

vs Losene Keita · Mar 26

latest

Muhammad Naimov

oldest →

KOvs Erik Silva · Feb 24

SUBvs Felipe Lima · Jun 24

vs Kaan Ofli · Feb 25

vs Bogdan Grad · Jun 25

KOvs Mairon Santos · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nathaniel WoodMetricMuhammad Naimov

5.64

Strikes / min

2.51

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

54%

Strike defense

44%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

1.49

73%

Takedown defense

68%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 2.23 — meaningful gap-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nathaniel WoodMuhammad Naimov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nathaniel Wood(10 fights)Muhammad Naimov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nathaniel WoodTargetMuhammad Naimov

By target zone

65% acc · 74%

Head

52% acc · 65%

86% acc · 12%

Body

77% acc · 21%

88% acc · 14%

Leg

88% acc · 15%

By position

64% acc · 72%

Distance

50% acc · 50%

83% acc · 10%

Clinch

79% acc · 23%

90% acc · 18%

Ground

68% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nathaniel Wood rounds

even

Muhammad Naimov rounds

Round 1Muhammad Naimov edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:45

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:37Control

Round 2Muhammad Naimov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:32

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:59Control

Round 3Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:27

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 72

Sig Strikes

48 / 81

76.7%

Sig Str %

65%

70 / 94

Total Strikes

100 / 140

2 / 7

TDs

4 / 9

27.7%

TD %

44%

Sub Att

Rev

2:44

Ctrl Time

6:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Muhammad Naimov	18 / 28	49 / 64	1 / 3
1	Nathaniel Wood	10 / 17	17 / 26	1 / 2
2	Muhammad Naimov	11 / 13	30 / 34	2 / 3
2	Nathaniel Wood	1 / 1	6 / 6	1 / 3
3	Muhammad Naimov	19 / 40	21 / 42	1 / 3
3	Nathaniel Wood	39 / 54	47 / 62	0 / 2

Nathaniel Wood

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Muhammad Naimov

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7