← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nathaniel Wood won · U-DEC R3

Elo1543

Elo1502

Nathaniel WoodvsMorgan CharriereUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Saturday, March 22, 2025London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Nathaniel Wood won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNathaniel Wood: Pressure fightervsMorgan Charriere: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Nathaniel Wood wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Nathaniel Wood wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nathaniel Wood at -102 American odds

+$98 profit

$198 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nathaniel Wood enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Nathaniel Wood

Red Corner

Morgan Charriere

Blue Corner

-102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-116

(54%)

1543

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nathaniel WoodW3 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Fili · Jul 23

vs Muhammad Naimov · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Jul 24

vs Jose Delgado · Oct 25

vs Losene Keita · Mar 26

latest

Morgan Charriere

oldest →

KOvs Manolo Zecchini · Sep 23

vs Chepe Mariscal · Apr 24

KOvs Gabriel Miranda · Sep 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Jul 25

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nathaniel WoodMetricMorgan Charriere

5.64

Strikes / min

4.02

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

4.51

54%

Strike defense

53%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

2.06

73%

Takedown defense

83%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.88 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nathaniel WoodMorgan Charriere

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nathaniel Wood(10 fights)Morgan Charriere(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +40.6|Blue -40.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nathaniel WoodTargetMorgan Charriere

By target zone

53% acc · 58%

Head

33% acc · 50%

63% acc · 7%

Body

72% acc · 31%

81% acc · 35%

Leg

67% acc · 19%

By position

60% acc · 86%

Distance

43% acc · 88%

75% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

64% acc · 10%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nathaniel Wood rounds

even

Morgan Charriere rounds

Round 1Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:51

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:40Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:09

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 119

Sig Strikes

42 / 94

59%

Sig Str %

46%

89 / 136

Total Strikes

69 / 125

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

1:00

Ctrl Time

3:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Morgan Charriere	5 / 10	30 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Nathaniel Wood	15 / 26	31 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	Morgan Charriere	18 / 38	20 / 40	1 / 3	0
2	Nathaniel Wood	35 / 51	36 / 52	0 / 0	1
3	Morgan Charriere	19 / 46	19 / 46	0 / 0	0
3	Nathaniel Wood	22 / 42	22 / 42	0 / 0	0

Nathaniel Wood

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Morgan Charriere

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6