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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nathaniel Wood won · S-DEC R3

Elo1543

Elo1480

Nathaniel WoodvsLosene KeitaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Saturday, March 21, 2026London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Nathaniel Wood won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNathaniel Wood: Pressure fightervsLosene Keita: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Nathaniel Wood wins(77.1%)

Actual result: Nathaniel Wood wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nathaniel Wood at +194 American odds

+$194 profit

$294 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nathaniel Wood enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Losene Keita has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nathaniel Wood

Red Corner

Losene Keita

Blue Corner

+194

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

1543

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nathaniel WoodW3 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Fili · Jul 23

vs Muhammad Naimov · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Jul 24

vs Morgan Charriere · Mar 25

vs Jose Delgado · Oct 25

latest

Losene KeitaNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nathaniel WoodMetricLosene Keita

5.64

Strikes / min

3.47

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

4.47

54%

Strike defense

62%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

0.00

73%

Takedown defense

100%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 2.39 — meaningful gap-1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nathaniel WoodLosene Keita

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nathaniel Wood(10 fights)Losene Keita(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +62.7|Blue -62.7

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nathaniel WoodTargetLosene Keita

By target zone

25% acc · 48%

Head

36% acc · 69%

67% acc · 3%

Body

87% acc · 25%

70% acc · 49%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

44% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nathaniel Wood rounds

even

Losene Keita rounds

Round 1Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Losene Keita edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 178

Sig Strikes

52 / 119

36.3%

Sig Str %

43.7%

67 / 178

Total Strikes

52 / 119

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Losene Keita	11 / 26	11 / 26	0 / 0
1	Nathaniel Wood	17 / 56	17 / 56	0 / 1
2	Losene Keita	23 / 42	23 / 42	0 / 0
2	Nathaniel Wood	19 / 56	19 / 56	0 / 0
3	Losene Keita	18 / 51	18 / 51	0 / 0
3	Nathaniel Wood	31 / 66	31 / 66	0 / 0

Nathaniel Wood

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Losene Keita

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights1