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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nathaniel Wood won · U-DEC R3

Elo1543

Elo1559

Nathaniel WoodvsJose DelgadoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Saturday, October 25, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Nathaniel Wood won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNathaniel Wood: Pressure fightervsJose Delgado: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jose Delgado wins(59.7%)

Actual result: Nathaniel Wood wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Delgado at -162 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nathaniel Wood enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jose Delgado enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Nathaniel Wood has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jose Delgado (52.9%).
Jose Delgado has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nathaniel Wood

Red Corner

Jose Delgado

Blue Corner

+136

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-162

(62%)

1543

Elo

1559

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nathaniel WoodW3 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Fili · Jul 23

vs Muhammad Naimov · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Jul 24

vs Morgan Charriere · Mar 25

vs Losene Keita · Mar 26

latest

Jose DelgadoW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Connor Matthews · Feb 25

KOvs Hyder Amil · Jun 25

vs Andre Fili · Mar 26

DECvs Austin Bashi · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nathaniel WoodMetricJose Delgado

5.64

Strikes / min

7.48

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

4.95

54%

Strike defense

50%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

1.51

73%

Takedown defense

50%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap+2.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nathaniel WoodJose Delgado

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nathaniel Wood(10 fights)Jose Delgado(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.2|Blue +16.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nathaniel WoodTargetJose Delgado

By target zone

51% acc · 64%

Head

52% acc · 69%

88% acc · 7%

Body

76% acc · 26%

66% acc · 29%

Leg

88% acc · 5%

By position

55% acc · 89%

Distance

100

53% acc · 75%

70% acc · 7%

Clinch

88% acc · 10%

57% acc · 4%

Ground

77% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nathaniel Wood rounds

even

Jose Delgado rounds

Round 1Jose Delgado edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

68Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control0:38

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control0:17

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

99 / 176

Sig Strikes

134 / 232

56%

Sig Str %

56.3%

101 / 178

Total Strikes

141 / 239

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 2

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:58

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jose Delgado	68 / 111	75 / 118	0 / 0
1	Nathaniel Wood	24 / 59	25 / 60	0 / 0
2	Jose Delgado	29 / 55	29 / 55	0 / 0
2	Nathaniel Wood	36 / 61	37 / 62	1 / 1
3	Jose Delgado	37 / 66	37 / 66	0 / 2
3	Nathaniel Wood	39 / 56	39 / 56	1 / 2

Nathaniel Wood

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Jose Delgado

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5