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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Nathaniel Wood won · U-DEC R3

Elo1543

Elo1495

Nathaniel WoodvsJohn CastanedaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · Saturday, July 25, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Nathaniel Wood won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNathaniel Wood: Pressure fightervsJohn Castaneda: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Nathaniel Wood wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Nathaniel Wood wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nathaniel Wood at -455 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nathaniel Wood enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors John Castaneda (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Nathaniel Wood

Red Corner

John Castaneda

Blue Corner

-455

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1543

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nathaniel WoodW4 streak

oldest →

vs Muhammad Naimov · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Jul 24

vs Morgan Charriere · Mar 25

vs Jose Delgado · Oct 25

vs Losene Keita · Mar 26

latest

John Castaneda

oldest →

vs Muin Gafurov · Jun 23

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 23

vs Daniel Marcos · Jun 24

vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 25

DECvs Mark Vologdin · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nathaniel WoodMetricJohn Castaneda

5.64

Strikes / min

4.95

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

5.07

54%

Strike defense

54%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

1.49

73%

Takedown defense

75%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nathaniel WoodJohn Castaneda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nathaniel Wood(10 fights)John Castaneda(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +47.7|Blue -47.7

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nathaniel WoodTargetJohn Castaneda

By target zone

41% acc · 45%

Head

32% acc · 64%

64% acc · 11%

Body

86% acc · 11%

87% acc · 44%

Leg

93% acc · 25%

By position

123

56% acc · 94%

Distance

41% acc · 96%

73% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nathaniel Wood rounds

even

John Castaneda rounds

Round 1Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:05

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes52

Takedowns0

Control0:32

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns1

Control0:12

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

131 / 232

Sig Strikes

55 / 130

56%

Sig Str %

42%

136 / 240

Total Strikes

66 / 141

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:49

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Castaneda	22 / 44	22 / 44	0 / 1
1	Nathaniel Wood	33 / 60	34 / 64	0 / 1
2	John Castaneda	17 / 42	24 / 49	0 / 0
2	Nathaniel Wood	52 / 88	54 / 90	0 / 1
3	John Castaneda	16 / 44	20 / 48	0 / 0
3	Nathaniel Wood	46 / 84	48 / 86	1 / 1

Nathaniel Wood

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

John Castaneda

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8