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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nathaniel Wood won · U-DEC R3

Elo1543

Elo1489

Nathaniel WoodvsDaniel PinedaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Saturday, July 27, 2024Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Nathaniel Wood won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNathaniel Wood: Pressure fightervsDaniel Pineda: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Nathaniel Wood wins(79.1%)

Actual result: Nathaniel Wood wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nathaniel Wood at -475 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nathaniel Wood enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Nathaniel Wood has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nathaniel Wood

Red Corner

Daniel Pineda

Blue Corner

-475

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1543

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nathaniel WoodW3 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Fili · Jul 23

vs Muhammad Naimov · Oct 23

vs Morgan Charriere · Mar 25

vs Jose Delgado · Oct 25

vs Losene Keita · Mar 26

latest

Daniel PinedaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Herbert Burns · Aug 20

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20

SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nathaniel WoodMetricDaniel Pineda

5.64

Strikes / min

2.85

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

54%

Strike defense

45%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

1.42

73%

Takedown defense

54%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.80 — meaningful gap-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nathaniel WoodDaniel Pineda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nathaniel Wood(10 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +53.5|Blue -53.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nathaniel WoodTargetDaniel Pineda

By target zone

63% acc · 53%

Head

40% acc · 66%

86% acc · 18%

Body

60% acc · 9%

83% acc · 29%

Leg

73% acc · 25%

By position

70% acc · 83%

Distance

36% acc · 59%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

79% acc · 17%

Ground

79% acc · 34%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nathaniel Wood rounds

even

Daniel Pineda rounds

Round 1Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control2:09

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:47Control

Round 2Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control1:22

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Daniel Pineda edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:11

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 93

Sig Strikes

32 / 69

73.3%

Sig Str %

50.3%

81 / 110

Total Strikes

80 / 125

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:42

Ctrl Time

5:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Pineda	13 / 18	30 / 37	0 / 2	0
1	Nathaniel Wood	15 / 21	24 / 31	0 / 0	0
2	Daniel Pineda	12 / 36	24 / 49	0 / 3	0
2	Nathaniel Wood	42 / 61	47 / 67	0 / 0	0
3	Daniel Pineda	7 / 15	26 / 39	1 / 1	0
3	Nathaniel Wood	9 / 11	10 / 12	0 / 0	1

Nathaniel Wood

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Daniel Pineda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13