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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nathaniel Wood won · U-DEC R3

Elo1543

Elo1430

Nathaniel WoodvsCharles RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Saturday, July 23, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Nathaniel Wood won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNathaniel Wood: Pressure fightervsCharles Rosa: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Nathaniel Wood wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Nathaniel Wood wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nathaniel Wood at -560 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nathaniel Wood enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Nathaniel Wood has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Nathaniel Wood

Red Corner

Charles Rosa

Blue Corner

-560

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+430

(19%)

1543

Elo

1430

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nathaniel WoodW4 streak

oldest →

vs Muhammad Naimov · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Jul 24

vs Morgan Charriere · Mar 25

vs Jose Delgado · Oct 25

vs Losene Keita · Mar 26

latest

Charles RosaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Aguilar · Jun 20

vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21

vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21

vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21

vs TJ Brown · Jan 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nathaniel WoodMetricCharles Rosa

5.64

Strikes / min

3.08

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

54%

Strike defense

47%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

1.67

73%

Takedown defense

38%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap-0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nathaniel WoodCharles Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nathaniel Wood(10 fights)Charles Rosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +112.2|Blue -112.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +448.0|Blue -448.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nathaniel WoodTargetCharles Rosa

By target zone

56% acc · 64%

Head

18% acc · 41%

31% acc · 4%

Body

62% acc · 35%

89% acc · 32%

Leg

67% acc · 24%

By position

60% acc · 90%

Distance

28% acc · 84%

71% acc · 5%

Clinch

67% acc · 12%

63% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nathaniel Wood rounds

even

Charles Rosa rounds

Round 1Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:03

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 2Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control0:15

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:07

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

97 / 159

Sig Strikes

51 / 167

60%

Sig Str %

29.7%

102 / 166

Total Strikes

54 / 170

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 9

100%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

0:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Rosa	25 / 63	25 / 63	1 / 2	1
1	Nathaniel Wood	39 / 62	43 / 66	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Rosa	12 / 42	12 / 42	0 / 3	0
2	Nathaniel Wood	31 / 51	31 / 51	1 / 1	0
3	Charles Rosa	14 / 62	17 / 65	1 / 4	0
3	Nathaniel Wood	27 / 46	28 / 49	0 / 0	0

Nathaniel Wood

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Charles Rosa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13