← All fights/Event page

Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Casey Kenney won · U-DEC

Elo1543

Elo1406

Nathaniel WoodvsCasey KenneyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Saturday, October 24, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Casey Kenney won

U-DEC

Style matchupNathaniel Wood: Pressure fightervsCasey Kenney: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Nathaniel Wood wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Casey Kenney wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nathaniel Wood at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nathaniel Wood enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Casey Kenney (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nathaniel Wood

Red Corner

Casey Kenney

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-177

(64%)

1543

Elo

1406

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nathaniel WoodW4 streak

oldest →

vs Muhammad Naimov · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Jul 24

vs Morgan Charriere · Mar 25

vs Jose Delgado · Oct 25

vs Losene Keita · Mar 26

latest

Casey KenneyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 20

SUBvs Louis Smolka · May 20

vs Heili Alateng · Oct 20

vs Dominick Cruz · Mar 21

vs Song Yadong · Aug 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nathaniel WoodMetricCasey Kenney

5.64

Strikes / min

4.85

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

4.67

54%

Strike defense

58%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

1.09

73%

Takedown defense

61%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nathaniel WoodCasey Kenney

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nathaniel Wood(10 fights)Casey Kenney(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.6|Blue -136.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nathaniel WoodTargetCasey Kenney

By target zone

30% acc · 51%

Head

39% acc · 60%

41% acc · 7%

Body

78% acc · 20%

92% acc · 42%

Leg

92% acc · 20%

By position

134

42% acc · 99%

Distance

118

49% acc · 96%

67% acc · 1%

Clinch

80% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nathaniel Wood rounds

even

Casey Kenney rounds

Round 1Casey Kenney edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control0:00

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:28Control

Fight Stats

Totals

136 / 321

Sig Strikes

123 / 247

42%

Sig Str %

49%

138 / 325

Total Strikes

125 / 249

0 / 3

TDs

2 / 6

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Casey Kenney	54 / 96	54 / 96	0 / 0
1	Nathaniel Wood	51 / 120	51 / 120	0 / 0
2	Casey Kenney	40 / 90	40 / 90	0 / 2
2	Nathaniel Wood	48 / 113	48 / 113	0 / 0
3	Casey Kenney	29 / 61	31 / 63	2 / 4
3	Nathaniel Wood	37 / 88	39 / 92	0 / 3

Nathaniel Wood

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Casey Kenney

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8