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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Caolan Loughran won · S-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1508

Nathan FletchervsCaolan LoughranUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Saturday, March 22, 2025London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Caolan Loughran won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNathan Fletcher: WrestlervsCaolan Loughran: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Caolan Loughran wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Caolan Loughran wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caolan Loughran at +132 American odds

+$132 profit

$232 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Caolan Loughran has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nathan Fletcher

Red Corner

Caolan Loughran

Blue Corner

-156

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+132

(43%)

1483

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nathan Fletcher

oldest →

SUBvs Zygimantas Ramaska · Sep 24

KOvs Rinya Nakamura · Aug 25

latest

Caolan Loughran

oldest →

vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 23

vs Angel Pacheco · Mar 24

vs Jake Hadley · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nathan FletcherMetricCaolan Loughran

3.41

Strikes / min

4.73

2.16

Strikes absorbed / min

5.20

57%

Strike defense

52%

3.37

TDs / 15 min

3.00

50%

Takedown defense

87%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.25Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nathan FletcherCaolan Loughran

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nathan Fletcher(3 fights)Caolan Loughran(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.2|Blue +24.2

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nathan FletcherTargetCaolan Loughran

By target zone

52% acc · 69%

Head

33% acc · 73%

80% acc · 20%

Body

54% acc · 23%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

25% acc · 3%

By position

44% acc · 42%

Distance

32% acc · 80%

83% acc · 56%

Clinch

67% acc · 20%

33% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nathan Fletcher rounds

even

Caolan Loughran rounds

Round 1Caolan Loughran edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:20

12Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:06Control

Round 2Nathan Fletcher edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control3:31

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 3Caolan Loughran edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:23

15Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 100

Sig Strikes

30 / 84

60.3%

Sig Str %

32.7%

114 / 158

Total Strikes

65 / 128

1 / 7

TDs

6 / 12

10%

TD %

36.7%

Sub Att

Rev

4:14

Ctrl Time

5:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Caolan Loughran	12 / 36	24 / 48	3 / 5
1	Nathan Fletcher	15 / 38	20 / 43	0 / 0
2	Caolan Loughran	3 / 14	14 / 26	0 / 1
2	Nathan Fletcher	20 / 26	64 / 73	1 / 5
3	Caolan Loughran	15 / 34	27 / 54	3 / 6
3	Nathan Fletcher	24 / 36	30 / 42	0 / 2

Nathan Fletcher

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3

Caolan Loughran

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4