Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jorge Rivera won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Nate QuarryvsJorge RiveraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi · Wednesday, March 31, 2010Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Jorge Rivera won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:29

Style matchupNate Quarry: Elusive strikervsJorge Rivera: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Nate Quarry wins(70.3%)

Actual result: Jorge Rivera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Quarry at -230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Quarry has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Quarry

Red Corner

Jorge Rivera

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Open Stance

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate QuarryNo prior UFC fights on record.

Jorge Rivera

oldest →

KOvs Michael Bisping · Feb 11

DECvs Costas Philippou · Aug 11

KOvs Eric Schafer · Jan 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate QuarryMetricJorge Rivera

4.96

Strikes / min

3.16

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

66%

Strike defense

54%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

0.84

60%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.16Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap+0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate QuarryJorge Rivera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Quarry(1 fights)Jorge Rivera(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate QuarryTargetJorge Rivera

By target zone

8% acc · 21%

Head

41% acc · 83%

50% acc · 11%

Body

75% acc · 10%

87% acc · 68%

Leg

67% acc · 7%

By position

28% acc · 89%

Distance

41% acc · 52%

18% acc · 11%

Clinch

50% acc · 34%

Ground

50% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Quarry rounds

even

Jorge Rivera rounds

Round 1Jorge Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:24Control

2Knockdowns

Round 2Jorge Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 71

Sig Strikes

29 / 65

26%

Sig Str %

46.5%

19 / 72

Total Strikes

58 / 104

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jorge Rivera	25 / 57	51 / 93	0 / 0
1	Nate Quarry	15 / 56	15 / 57	0 / 1
2	Jorge Rivera	4 / 8	7 / 11	0 / 0
2	Nate Quarry	4 / 15	4 / 15	0 / 0

Nate Quarry

StanceOpen Stance

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights1

Jorge Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4