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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Yushin Okami won · U-DEC R3

Elo1363

Elo1491

Nate MarquardtvsYushin OkamiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami · Saturday, November 13, 2010Oberhausen, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany

Official fight result

Yushin Okami won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Yushin Okami wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Yushin Okami wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yushin Okami at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nate Marquardt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Yushin Okami has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Yushin Okami (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nate Marquardt

Red Corner

Yushin Okami

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1363

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate MarquardtL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16

KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16

vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17

vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17

vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17

latest

Yushin Okami

oldest →

vs Hector Lombard · Mar 13

KOvs Jacare Souza · Sep 13

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Sep 17

vs Dhiego Lima · Apr 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate MarquardtMetricYushin Okami

2.71

Strikes / min

2.06

2.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.25

55%

Strike defense

60%

1.87

TDs / 15 min

1.98

70%

Takedown defense

84%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate MarquardtYushin Okami

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Marquardt(10 fights)Yushin Okami(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -128.8|Blue +128.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -45.0|Blue +45.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate MarquardtTargetYushin Okami

By target zone

26% acc · 57%

Head

29% acc · 92%

50% acc · 24%

Body

67% acc · 8%

80% acc · 19%

Leg

By position

31% acc · 76%

Distance

28% acc · 88%

63% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Marquardt rounds

even

Yushin Okami rounds

Round 1Yushin Okami edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control1:31

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:25Control

Round 2Nate Marquardt edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control0:53

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:29

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 61

Sig Strikes

25 / 83

31.3%

Sig Str %

39.3%

27 / 68

Total Strikes

40 / 98

3 / 4

TDs

1 / 9

83%

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:53

Ctrl Time

4:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yushin Okami	3 / 5	14 / 16	1 / 4	0
1	Nate Marquardt	2 / 9	5 / 13	0 / 0	2
2	Yushin Okami	6 / 19	7 / 20	0 / 5	0
2	Nate Marquardt	6 / 17	8 / 19	2 / 3	0
3	Yushin Okami	16 / 59	19 / 62	0 / 0	0
3	Nate Marquardt	13 / 35	14 / 36	1 / 1	0

Nate Marquardt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Yushin Okami

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12