Middleweight

3 Rounds

Nate Marquardt won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1363

Elo1358

Nate MarquardtvsTamdan McCroryUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · Saturday, October 1, 2016Portland, Oregon, USA

Official fight result

Nate Marquardt won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:44

Style matchupNate Marquardt: Well-roundedvsTamdan McCrory: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nate Marquardt wins(56.4%)

Actual result: Nate Marquardt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Marquardt at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Marquardt enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Nate Marquardt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Tamdan McCrory has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Nate Marquardt has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tamdan McCrory (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Nate Marquardt

Red Corner

Tamdan McCrory

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1363

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

6'4"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate MarquardtL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 15

KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16

vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17

vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17

vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17

latest

Tamdan McCrory

oldest →

SUBvs Josh Samman · Dec 15

KOvs Krzysztof Jotko · Jun 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate MarquardtMetricTamdan McCrory

2.71

Strikes / min

2.07

2.32

Strikes absorbed / min

1.60

55%

Strike defense

46%

1.87

TDs / 15 min

2.28

70%

Takedown defense

33%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

2.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.39evenly matched on net striking+0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate MarquardtTamdan McCrory

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Marquardt(10 fights)Tamdan McCrory(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.5|Blue -4.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate MarquardtTargetTamdan McCrory

By target zone

50% acc · 46%

Head

13% acc · 31%

82% acc · 38%

Body

67% acc · 25%

67% acc · 17%

Leg

88% acc · 44%

By position

58% acc · 79%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Marquardt rounds

even

Tamdan McCrory rounds

Round 1Nate Marquardt edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:54

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nate Marquardt edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:06

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 39

Sig Strikes

16 / 52

62%

Sig Str %

29.5%

48 / 65

Total Strikes

19 / 55

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:00

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tamdan McCrory	5 / 18	7 / 20	0 / 0
1	Nate Marquardt	12 / 17	25 / 31	1 / 1
2	Tamdan McCrory	11 / 34	12 / 35	0 / 0
2	Nate Marquardt	12 / 22	23 / 34	1 / 1

Nate Marquardt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Tamdan McCrory

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3