Middleweight

3 Rounds

Sam Alvey won · U-DEC R3

Elo1363

Elo1431

Nate MarquardtvsSam AlveyUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Saturday, January 28, 2017Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Sam Alvey won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNate Marquardt: Well-roundedvsSam Alvey: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Alvey at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nate Marquardt

Red Corner

Sam Alvey

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1363

Elo

1431

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate MarquardtL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 15

KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16

KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16

vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17

vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17

latest

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate MarquardtMetricSam Alvey

2.71

Strikes / min

3.28

2.32

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

55%

Strike defense

52%

1.87

TDs / 15 min

0.06

70%

Takedown defense

82%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate MarquardtSam Alvey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Marquardt(10 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -68.0|Blue +68.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate MarquardtTargetSam Alvey

By target zone

32% acc · 46%

Head

35% acc · 64%

50% acc · 25%

Body

71% acc · 14%

80% acc · 29%

Leg

73% acc · 22%

By position

42% acc · 79%

Distance

41% acc · 86%

50% acc · 21%

Clinch

50% acc · 11%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Marquardt rounds

even

Sam Alvey rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:20

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 2Sam Alvey edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:22

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Nate Marquardt edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:10

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 65

Sig Strikes

36 / 84

46.7%

Sig Str %

42%

52 / 90

Total Strikes

45 / 95

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:52

Ctrl Time

2:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sam Alvey	8 / 17	11 / 22	0 / 0
1	Nate Marquardt	10 / 14	22 / 26	0 / 0
2	Sam Alvey	20 / 44	21 / 45	0 / 0
2	Nate Marquardt	12 / 33	15 / 36	0 / 0
3	Sam Alvey	8 / 23	13 / 28	0 / 1
3	Nate Marquardt	6 / 18	15 / 28	1 / 2

Nate Marquardt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23