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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Nate Marquardt won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1363

Elo1490

Nate MarquardtvsRousimar PalharesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · Wednesday, September 15, 2010Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Nate Marquardt won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:28

Style matchupNate Marquardt: Well-roundedvsRousimar Palhares: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nate Marquardt wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Nate Marquardt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Marquardt at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nate Marquardt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Rousimar Palhares has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Nate Marquardt has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Marquardt

Red Corner

Rousimar Palhares

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1363

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'8"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate MarquardtL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16

KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16

vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17

vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17

vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17

latest

Rousimar Palhares

oldest →

vs Dan Miller · Aug 11

SUBvs Mike Massenzio · Jan 12

KOvs Alan Belcher · May 12

KOvs Hector Lombard · Dec 12

SUBvs Mike Pierce · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate MarquardtMetricRousimar Palhares

2.71

Strikes / min

1.75

2.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.04

55%

Strike defense

59%

1.87

TDs / 15 min

3.93

70%

Takedown defense

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

4.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate MarquardtRousimar Palhares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Marquardt(10 fights)Rousimar Palhares(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -127.7|Blue +127.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.1|Blue -49.1

Grappler Score

Red +49.2|Blue -49.2

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate MarquardtTargetRousimar Palhares

By target zone

36% acc · 92%

Head

17% acc · 100%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 8%

Leg

By position

20% acc · 31%

Distance

17% acc · 100%

Clinch

60% acc · 69%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Marquardt rounds

even

Rousimar Palhares rounds

Round 1Nate Marquardt edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:16

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 35

Sig Strikes

1 / 6

37%

Sig Str %

16%

18 / 40

Total Strikes

1 / 6

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rousimar Palhares	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 1	1
1	Nate Marquardt	13 / 35	18 / 40	0 / 0	1

Nate Marquardt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Rousimar Palhares

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8