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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Hector Lombard won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1363

Elo1368

Nate MarquardtvsHector LombardUFC Prediction Result

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · Saturday, October 19, 2013Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Hector Lombard won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:48

Style matchupNate Marquardt: Well-roundedvsHector Lombard: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Hector Lombard wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Hector Lombard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hector Lombard at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Hector Lombard enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Hector Lombard (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nate Marquardt

Red Corner

Hector Lombard

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1363

Elo

1368

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate MarquardtL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16

KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16

vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17

vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17

vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17

latest

Hector LombardL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dan Henderson · Jun 16

vs Johny Hendricks · Feb 17

KOvs Anthony Smith · Sep 17

vs CB Dollaway · Mar 18

vs Thales Leites · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate MarquardtMetricHector Lombard

2.71

Strikes / min

3.02

2.32

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

55%

Strike defense

53%

1.87

TDs / 15 min

1.69

70%

Takedown defense

77%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate MarquardtHector Lombard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Marquardt(10 fights)Hector Lombard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.1|Blue +5.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate MarquardtTargetHector Lombard

By target zone

33% acc · 50%

Head

45% acc · 100%

100% acc · 25%

Body

33% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 75%

Distance

36% acc · 50%

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

40% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Marquardt rounds

even

Hector Lombard rounds

Round 1Hector Lombard edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 10

Sig Strikes

10 / 22

40%

Sig Str %

45%

4 / 10

Total Strikes

13 / 25

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hector Lombard	10 / 22	13 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Nate Marquardt	4 / 10	4 / 10	0 / 0	0

Nate Marquardt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Hector Lombard

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11