Middleweight

3 Rounds

Cezar Ferreira won · S-DEC R3

Elo1363

Elo1374

Nate MarquardtvsCezar FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Saturday, November 11, 2017Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Cezar Ferreira won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNate Marquardt: Well-roundedvsCezar Ferreira: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nate Marquardt wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Cezar Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Marquardt at +225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Marquardt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Cezar Ferreira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).
Cezar Ferreira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Marquardt

Red Corner

Cezar Ferreira

Blue Corner

+225

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1363

Elo

1374

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate MarquardtL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 15

KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16

KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16

vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17

vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17

latest

Cezar FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 16

vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17

SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18

vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate MarquardtMetricCezar Ferreira

2.71

Strikes / min

1.90

2.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

55%

Strike defense

53%

1.87

TDs / 15 min

2.69

70%

Takedown defense

84%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate MarquardtCezar Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Marquardt(10 fights)Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.8|Blue +11.8

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -104.0|Blue +104.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate MarquardtTargetCezar Ferreira

By target zone

45% acc · 61%

Head

34% acc · 30%

89% acc · 22%

Body

71% acc · 32%

86% acc · 17%

Leg

95% acc · 38%

By position

45% acc · 64%

Distance

51% acc · 74%

88% acc · 19%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

100% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Marquardt rounds

even

Cezar Ferreira rounds

Round 1Cezar Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nate Marquardt edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:26

Knockdowns1

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Cezar Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:15

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 65

Sig Strikes

47 / 81

59.3%

Sig Str %

64.7%

51 / 82

Total Strikes

96 / 135

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

4:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cezar Ferreira	16 / 29	16 / 29	0 / 0
1	Nate Marquardt	8 / 18	8 / 18	0 / 1
2	Cezar Ferreira	18 / 38	18 / 38	0 / 1
2	Nate Marquardt	20 / 37	21 / 38	0 / 1
3	Cezar Ferreira	13 / 14	62 / 68	2 / 3
3	Nate Marquardt	8 / 10	22 / 26	0 / 0

Nate Marquardt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15