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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Umar Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1506

Elo1537

Nate ManessvsUmar NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Saturday, June 25, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Umar Nurmagomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNate Maness: Well-roundedvsUmar Nurmagomedov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov wins(78.5%)

Actual result: Umar Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Umar Nurmagomedov at -950 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Umar Nurmagomedov has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Maness

Red Corner

Umar Nurmagomedov

Blue Corner

+650

(13%)

Vegas Odds

-950

(90%)

1506

Elo

1537

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate ManessW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Nov 20

KOvs Tony Gravely · Sep 21

SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 22

KOvs Mateus Mendonca · Oct 23

vs Jimmy Flick · Jun 24

latest

Umar NurmagomedovW2 streak

oldest →

vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 25

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate ManessMetricUmar Nurmagomedov

3.14

Strikes / min

3.86

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

1.86

42%

Strike defense

61%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

4.03

80%

Takedown defense

79%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.74Δ 2.74 — meaningful gap+2.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate ManessUmar Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Maness(7 fights)Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.0|Blue +31.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate ManessTargetUmar Nurmagomedov

By target zone

5% acc · 50%

Head

76% acc · 81%

100% acc · 50%

Body

67% acc · 14%

Leg

67% acc · 5%

By position

10% acc · 100%

Distance

52% acc · 23%

Clinch

Ground

85% acc · 77%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Maness rounds

even

Umar Nurmagomedov rounds

Round 1Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:29Control

Round 2Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:23Control

Round 3Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 20

Sig Strikes

74 / 100

Sig Str %

74.7%

46 / 68

Total Strikes

128 / 161

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 4

—

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

10:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Umar Nurmagomedov	18 / 21	40 / 46	1 / 1
1	Nate Maness	1 / 10	17 / 28	0 / 0
2	Umar Nurmagomedov	21 / 31	32 / 43	1 / 1
2	Nate Maness	0 / 1	18 / 21	0 / 0
3	Umar Nurmagomedov	35 / 48	56 / 72	1 / 2
3	Nate Maness	1 / 9	11 / 19	0 / 0

Nate Maness

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Umar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9