Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Nate Maness won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1506

Elo1455

Nate ManessvsTony GravelyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Saturday, September 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nate Maness won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:10

Style matchupNate Maness: Well-roundedvsTony Gravely: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tony Gravely wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Nate Maness wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Gravely at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Maness has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Maness

Red Corner

Tony Gravely

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1506

Elo

1455

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'5"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate ManessW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Nov 20

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jun 22

SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 22

KOvs Mateus Mendonca · Oct 23

vs Jimmy Flick · Jun 24

latest

Tony GravelyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Birchak · Apr 21

vs Saimon Oliveira · Jan 22

KOvs Johnny Munoz · Jun 22

vs Javid Basharat · Sep 22

vs Victor Henry · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate ManessMetricTony Gravely

3.14

Strikes / min

3.82

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.47

42%

Strike defense

44%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

5.40

80%

Takedown defense

52%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.74evenly matched on net striking-0.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate ManessTony Gravely

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Maness(7 fights)Tony Gravely(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +50.7|Blue -50.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate ManessTargetTony Gravely

By target zone

46% acc · 84%

Head

42% acc · 50%

83% acc · 16%

Body

73% acc · 22%

Leg

71% acc · 28%

By position

40% acc · 68%

Distance

45% acc · 69%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

80% acc · 22%

89% acc · 26%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Maness rounds

even

Tony Gravely rounds

Round 1Tony Gravely edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:09

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:53Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Nate Maness edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 63

Sig Strikes

36 / 68

49.5%

Sig Str %

50%

64 / 98

Total Strikes

44 / 77

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 6

100%

TD %

10%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

2:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tony Gravely	26 / 41	32 / 48	1 / 5
1	Nate Maness	15 / 35	45 / 65	1 / 1
2	Tony Gravely	10 / 27	12 / 29	0 / 1
2	Nate Maness	16 / 28	19 / 33	0 / 0

Nate Maness

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Tony Gravely

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8