Flyweight

3 Rounds

Nate Maness won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1506

Elo1487

Nate ManessvsMateus MendoncaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Saturday, October 7, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nate Maness won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:40

Style matchupNate Maness: Well-roundedvsMateus Mendonca: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nate Maness wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Nate Maness wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Maness has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Nate Maness has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Maness

Red Corner

Mateus Mendonca

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1506

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'6"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate Maness

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Nov 20

KOvs Tony Gravely · Sep 21

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jun 22

SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 22

vs Jimmy Flick · Jun 24

latest

Mateus MendoncaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Javid Basharat · Jan 23

vs Jesus Aguilar · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate ManessMetricMateus Mendonca

3.14

Strikes / min

1.66

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.14

42%

Strike defense

30%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

2.54

80%

Takedown defense

55%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.74Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate ManessMateus Mendonca

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Maness(7 fights)Mateus Mendonca(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.1|Blue -19.1

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate ManessTargetMateus Mendonca

By target zone

84% acc · 90%

Head

0% acc

67% acc · 7%

Body

67% acc · 67%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

50% acc · 3%

Distance

20% acc · 33%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 67%

87% acc · 90%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Maness rounds

even

Mateus Mendonca rounds

Round 1Nate Maness edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control1:31

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 35

Sig Strikes

3 / 7

82%

Sig Str %

42%

103 / 114

Total Strikes

9 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:31

Ctrl Time

1:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mateus Mendonca	3 / 7	9 / 16	0 / 3	0
1	Nate Maness	29 / 35	103 / 114	0 / 0	0

Nate Maness

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Mateus Mendonca

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3