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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Morgan Charriere won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1469

Elo1502

Nate LandwehrvsMorgan CharriereUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Saturday, July 12, 2025Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Morgan Charriere won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:27

Style matchupNate Landwehr: Pressure fightervsMorgan Charriere: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Morgan Charriere wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Morgan Charriere wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Morgan Charriere at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Morgan Charriere is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Nate Landwehr has lost 83% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Landwehr

Red Corner

Morgan Charriere

Blue Corner

+196

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1469

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate LandwehrL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Austin Lingo · Mar 23

vs Dan Ige · Jun 23

KOvs Jamall Emmers · Mar 24

KOvs Dooho Choi · Dec 24

KOvs Cub Swanson · Apr 26

latest

Morgan CharriereL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Manolo Zecchini · Sep 23

vs Chepe Mariscal · Apr 24

KOvs Gabriel Miranda · Sep 24

vs Nathaniel Wood · Mar 25

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate LandwehrMetricMorgan Charriere

5.55

Strikes / min

4.02

5.96

Strikes absorbed / min

4.51

51%

Strike defense

53%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

2.06

71%

Takedown defense

83%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate LandwehrMorgan Charriere

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Landwehr(10 fights)Morgan Charriere(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -32.8|Blue +32.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate LandwehrTargetMorgan Charriere

By target zone

38% acc · 86%

Head

41% acc · 61%

78% acc · 11%

Body

86% acc · 18%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

82% acc · 21%

By position

41% acc · 100%

Distance

52% acc · 96%

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 3%

Ground

25% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Landwehr rounds

even

Morgan Charriere rounds

Round 1Morgan Charriere edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:22

27Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 2Nate Landwehr edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Morgan Charriere edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 155

Sig Strikes

67 / 131

37.7%

Sig Str %

47.3%

65 / 158

Total Strikes

67 / 131

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 5

—

TD %

40%

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Morgan Charriere	27 / 43	27 / 43	2 / 5
1	Nate Landwehr	18 / 46	20 / 49	0 / 0
2	Morgan Charriere	33 / 64	33 / 64	0 / 0
2	Nate Landwehr	43 / 103	43 / 103	0 / 0
3	Morgan Charriere	7 / 24	7 / 24	0 / 0
3	Nate Landwehr	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0

Nate Landwehr

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Morgan Charriere

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6