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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Julian Erosa won · KO/TKO

Elo1469

Elo1495

Nate LandwehrvsJulian ErosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Saturday, February 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Julian Erosa won

KO/TKO

Style matchupNate Landwehr: Pressure fightervsJulian Erosa: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Nate Landwehr wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Julian Erosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Landwehr at -112 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Landwehr enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nate Landwehr

Red Corner

Julian Erosa

Blue Corner

-112

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-112

(53%)

1469

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate LandwehrL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Jun 23

KOvs Jamall Emmers · Mar 24

KOvs Dooho Choi · Dec 24

KOvs Morgan Charriere · Jul 25

KOvs Cub Swanson · Apr 26

latest

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate LandwehrMetricJulian Erosa

5.55

Strikes / min

6.18

5.96

Strikes absorbed / min

6.31

51%

Strike defense

48%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

1.73

71%

Takedown defense

61%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate LandwehrJulian Erosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Landwehr(10 fights)Julian Erosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.5|Blue +25.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate LandwehrTargetJulian Erosa

By target zone

56% acc · 56%

Head

61% acc · 73%

100% acc · 11%

Body

67% acc · 13%

75% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

55% acc · 67%

Distance

71% acc · 80%

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

40% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Landwehr rounds

even

Julian Erosa rounds

Round 1Julian Erosa edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 14

Sig Strikes

15 / 23

64%

Sig Str %

65%

9 / 14

Total Strikes

17 / 25

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julian Erosa	15 / 23	17 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Nate Landwehr	9 / 14	9 / 14	0 / 0	0

Nate Landwehr

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18