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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nate Landwehr won · M-DEC R3

Elo1469

Elo1513

Nate LandwehrvsDavid OnamaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · Saturday, August 13, 2022San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Nate Landwehr won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNate Landwehr: Pressure fightervsDavid Onama: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Nate Landwehr wins(59.0%)

Actual result: Nate Landwehr wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Landwehr at +280 American odds

+$280 profit

$380 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Landwehr enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nate Landwehr has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Landwehr

Red Corner

David Onama

Blue Corner

+280

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-340

(77%)

1469

Elo

1513

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate LandwehrL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Jun 23

KOvs Jamall Emmers · Mar 24

KOvs Dooho Choi · Dec 24

KOvs Morgan Charriere · Jul 25

KOvs Cub Swanson · Apr 26

latest

David Onama

oldest →

KOvs Gabriel Santos · Jun 23

vs Jonathan Pearce · Apr 24

vs Roberto Romero · Nov 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Apr 25

KOvs Steve Garcia · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate LandwehrMetricDavid Onama

5.55

Strikes / min

5.07

5.96

Strikes absorbed / min

4.89

51%

Strike defense

51%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

1.05

71%

Takedown defense

52%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate LandwehrDavid Onama

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Landwehr(10 fights)David Onama(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -43.4|Blue +43.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +266.0|Blue -266.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate LandwehrTargetDavid Onama

By target zone

47% acc · 80%

Head

39% acc · 87%

56% acc · 11%

Body

53% acc · 11%

62% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

43% acc · 57%

Distance

36% acc · 70%

63% acc · 24%

Clinch

33% acc · 1%

57% acc · 19%

Ground

63% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Landwehr rounds

even

David Onama rounds

Round 1David Onama edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:31

Knockdowns0

46Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Nate Landwehr edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns3

Control3:08

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 3Nate Landwehr edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:26

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

91 / 185

Sig Strikes

71 / 174

47.7%

Sig Str %

38.3%

133 / 253

Total Strikes

79 / 186

3 / 4

TDs

1 / 6

50%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

5:05

Ctrl Time

1:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	David Onama	46 / 91	53 / 101	1 / 2	0
1	Nate Landwehr	21 / 52	29 / 62	0 / 0	0
2	David Onama	8 / 21	9 / 22	0 / 2	0
2	Nate Landwehr	43 / 76	65 / 116	3 / 3	2
3	David Onama	17 / 62	17 / 63	0 / 2	0
3	Nate Landwehr	27 / 57	39 / 75	0 / 1	0

Nate Landwehr

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

David Onama

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9