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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Nate Landwehr won · U-DEC R3
Elo1469
Nate Landwehr
Elo1499
Darren Elkins

Nate LandwehrvsDarren ElkinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · Saturday, May 16, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Nate Landwehr won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNate Landwehr: Pressure fightervsDarren Elkins: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Nate Landwehr wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Nate Landwehr wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Landwehr at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Nate Landwehr enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Nate Landwehr has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Landwehr
Red Corner
VS
Darren Elkins
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1469
Elo
1499
38
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate LandwehrL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Dan Ige · Jun 23
W
KOvs Jamall Emmers · Mar 24
L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Dec 24
L
KOvs Morgan Charriere · Jul 25
L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Apr 26
latest
Darren Elkins
oldest →
W
vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22
L
vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22
W
SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23
W
vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24
L
KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate LandwehrMetricDarren Elkins
5.55
Strikes / min
3.40
5.96
Strikes absorbed / min
3.34
51%
Strike defense
51%
0.73
TDs / 15 min
2.87
71%
Takedown defense
56%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.41evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1576Strikes6.9 vs 3.5Takedowns0.0 vs 2.4Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.20Form-1.0 vs -0.6
Nate LandwehrDarren Elkins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501468148515031520← oldermost recent →
Nate Landwehr(10 fights)Darren Elkins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -30.3|Blue +30.3
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red -196.0|Blue +196.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Nate Landwehr

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights10

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights30