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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nate Landwehr won · SUB R2

Elo1469

Elo1467

Nate LandwehrvsAustin LingoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, March 25, 2023San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Nate Landwehr won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:11

Style matchupNate Landwehr: Pressure fightervsAustin Lingo: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Nate Landwehr wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Nate Landwehr wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Landwehr at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Landwehr enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nate Landwehr threatens submissions; Austin Lingo has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Landwehr

Red Corner

Austin Lingo

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1469

Elo

1467

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate LandwehrL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Jun 23

KOvs Jamall Emmers · Mar 24

KOvs Dooho Choi · Dec 24

KOvs Morgan Charriere · Jul 25

KOvs Cub Swanson · Apr 26

latest

Austin Lingo

oldest →

DECvs Youssef Zalel · Feb 20

vs Jacob Kilburn · Jan 21

vs Luis Saldana · Aug 21

vs Melquizael Costa · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate LandwehrMetricAustin Lingo

5.55

Strikes / min

3.86

5.96

Strikes absorbed / min

4.86

51%

Strike defense

57%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

0.43

71%

Takedown defense

75%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41evenly matched on net striking-1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate LandwehrAustin Lingo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Landwehr(10 fights)Austin Lingo(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -357.0|Blue +357.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate LandwehrTargetAustin Lingo

By target zone

35% acc · 56%

Head

24% acc · 58%

36% acc · 14%

Body

65% acc · 35%

79% acc · 30%

Leg

75% acc · 6%

By position

41% acc · 95%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

75% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Landwehr rounds

even

Austin Lingo rounds

Round 1Nate Landwehr edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nate Landwehr edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control0:24

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 153

Sig Strikes

48 / 146

41.5%

Sig Str %

32%

68 / 160

Total Strikes

50 / 148

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Austin Lingo	30 / 91	31 / 92	0 / 0	0
1	Nate Landwehr	34 / 78	34 / 78	0 / 1	0
2	Austin Lingo	18 / 55	19 / 56	0 / 0	0
2	Nate Landwehr	30 / 75	34 / 82	1 / 1	1

Nate Landwehr

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Austin Lingo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5