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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Nate Diaz won · SUB R4

Elo1496

Elo1485

Nate DiazvsTony FergusonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Saturday, September 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nate Diaz won

SUB · Round 4 · 2:52

Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsTony Ferguson: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Ferguson at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Tony Ferguson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Tony Ferguson has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nate Diaz

Red Corner

Tony Ferguson

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1496

Elo

1485

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate DiazL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Mar 16

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

latest

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

vs Beneil Dariush · May 21

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate DiazMetricTony Ferguson

4.57

Strikes / min

4.91

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

4.37

52%

Strike defense

55%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

0.39

41%

Takedown defense

66%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate DiazTony Ferguson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Diaz(10 fights)Tony Ferguson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.2|Blue -11.2

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +329.0|Blue -329.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate DiazTargetTony Ferguson

By target zone

40% acc · 70%

Head

22% acc · 29%

70% acc · 21%

Body

85% acc · 29%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

87% acc · 43%

By position

46% acc · 98%

Distance

47% acc · 100%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Diaz rounds

even

Tony Ferguson rounds

Round 1Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

101 / 217

Sig Strikes

80 / 172

46.3%

Sig Str %

45.8%

101 / 217

Total Strikes

80 / 172

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tony Ferguson	19 / 45	19 / 45	0 / 1	0
1	Nate Diaz	22 / 51	22 / 51	0 / 0	0
2	Nate Diaz	28 / 59	28 / 59	0 / 0	0
2	Tony Ferguson	20 / 51	20 / 51	0 / 0	0
3	Tony Ferguson	30 / 51	30 / 51	0 / 1	0
3	Nate Diaz	26 / 56	26 / 56	0 / 0	0
4	Tony Ferguson	11 / 25	11 / 25	1 / 1	0
4	Nate Diaz	25 / 51	25 / 51	0 / 0	1

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24