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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nate Diaz won · SUB R1

Elo1496

Elo1362

Nate DiazvsTakanori GomiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · Saturday, September 24, 2011Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Nate Diaz won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:27

Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsTakanori Gomi: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(73.6%)

Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Diaz at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Takanori Gomi enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Takanori Gomi has lost 44% of fights by sub.
Takanori Gomi has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Nate Diaz has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Diaz

Red Corner

Takanori Gomi

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1496

Elo

1362

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'7"

193.04 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate Diaz

oldest →

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Takanori GomiL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Myles Jury · Sep 14

KOvs Joe Lauzon · Jul 15

KOvs Jim Miller · Jul 16

SUBvs Jon Tuck · Jun 17

KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Sep 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate DiazMetricTakanori Gomi

4.57

Strikes / min

3.81

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

52%

Strike defense

60%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

1.23

41%

Takedown defense

63%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate DiazTakanori Gomi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Diaz(10 fights)Takanori Gomi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.4|Blue -134.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate DiazTargetTakanori Gomi

By target zone

48% acc · 94%

Head

6% acc · 25%

100% acc · 6%

Body

43% acc · 75%

Leg

By position

48% acc · 94%

Distance

14% acc · 75%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Diaz rounds

even

Takanori Gomi rounds

Round 1Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:23

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 73

Sig Strikes

4 / 23

49%

Sig Str %

17%

42 / 81

Total Strikes

6 / 25

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Takanori Gomi	4 / 23	6 / 25	0 / 1	0
1	Nate Diaz	36 / 73	42 / 81	0 / 0	3

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Takanori Gomi

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13