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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Nate Diaz won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1496

Elo1490

Nate DiazvsRory MarkhamUFC Prediction Result

UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · Saturday, March 27, 2010Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Nate Diaz won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:47

Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(74.4%)

Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Diaz at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Diaz has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
Nate Diaz has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Diaz

Red Corner

Rory Markham

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1496

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate Diaz

oldest →

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Rory MarkhamNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate DiazMetricRory Markham

4.57

Strikes / min

1.98

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

10.27

52%

Strike defense

45%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

0.00

41%

Takedown defense

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80Δ 9.09 — meaningful gap-8.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate DiazRory Markham

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Diaz(10 fights)Rory Markham(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.2|Blue -6.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate DiazTargetRory Markham

By target zone

51% acc · 79%

Head

5% acc · 33%

100% acc · 6%

Body

50% acc · 33%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

40% acc · 41%

Distance

5% acc · 33%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

67% acc · 67%

78% acc · 53%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Diaz rounds

even

Rory Markham rounds

Round 1Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control1:15

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 60

Sig Strikes

3 / 22

56%

Sig Str %

13%

54 / 84

Total Strikes

3 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:15

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rory Markham	3 / 22	3 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Nate Diaz	34 / 60	54 / 84	0 / 0	0

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Rory Markham

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights1