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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rory MacDonald won · U-DEC R3
Elo1496
Nate Diaz
Elo1357
Rory MacDonald

Nate DiazvsRory MacDonaldUFC Prediction Result

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · Saturday, April 30, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Rory MacDonald won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsRory MacDonald: Elusive striker

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Rory MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Diaz at +127 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rory MacDonald has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Rory MacDonald has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nate Diaz
Red Corner
VS
Rory MacDonald
Blue Corner
+127
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-137
(58%)
1496
Elo
1357
41
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate Diaz
oldest →
L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16
W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19
L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19
L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21
W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22
latest
Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Demian Maia · Feb 14
W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14
W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14
L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15
L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate DiazMetricRory MacDonald
4.57
Strikes / min
3.75
3.77
Strikes absorbed / min
2.80
52%
Strike defense
62%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
1.77
41%
Takedown defense
88%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1482Strikes30.9 vs 18.5Takedowns1.2 vs 2.5Sub Atts1.25 vs 1.00Form0.1 vs -1.0
Nate DiazRory MacDonald

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Nate Diaz(10 fights)Rory MacDonald(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.1|Blue -139.1
Recent Form
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -203.0|Blue +203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate DiazTargetRory MacDonald

By target zone

10
30% acc · 38%
Head
22
33% acc · 52%
6
50% acc · 23%
Body
6
35% acc · 14%
10
59% acc · 38%
Leg
14
88% acc · 33%

By position

8
23% acc · 31%
Distance
22
38% acc · 52%
18
67% acc · 69%
Clinch
6
32% acc · 14%
0
Ground
14
64% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Nate Diaz rounds
0
even
3
Rory MacDonald rounds
Round 1Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:57
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:46Control
Round 2Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:58
14Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:00Control
Round 3Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:34
14Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
3:27Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
26 / 62
Sig Strikes
42 / 99
45.3%
Sig Str %
42.7%
72 / 112
Total Strikes
60 / 121
0 / 7
TDs
7 / 10
0%
TD %
80%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:29
Ctrl Time
5:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rory MacDonald14 / 3819 / 431 / 10
1Nate Diaz7 / 2213 / 290 / 20
2Rory MacDonald14 / 2717 / 322 / 50
2Nate Diaz14 / 3235 / 560 / 10
3Rory MacDonald14 / 3424 / 464 / 40
3Nate Diaz5 / 824 / 270 / 40

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18

Rory MacDonald

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12