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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Nate Diaz won · SUB R3

Elo1496

Elo1351

Nate DiazvsMarcus DavisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · Saturday, August 28, 2010Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Nate Diaz won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:02

Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsMarcus Davis: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Diaz at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Marcus Davis has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Marcus Davis has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Nate Diaz has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Diaz

Red Corner

Marcus Davis

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1496

Elo

1351

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate Diaz

oldest →

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Marcus Davis

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Goulet · May 10

KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Jan 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate DiazMetricMarcus Davis

4.57

Strikes / min

2.72

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

2.79

52%

Strike defense

65%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

1.60

41%

Takedown defense

47%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate DiazMarcus Davis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Diaz(10 fights)Marcus Davis(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +145.4|Blue -145.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate DiazTargetMarcus Davis

By target zone

25% acc · 81%

Head

20% acc · 69%

56% acc · 10%

Body

50% acc · 10%

75% acc · 10%

Leg

92% acc · 21%

By position

28% acc · 90%

Distance

24% acc · 87%

44% acc · 7%

Clinch

67% acc · 12%

67% acc · 2%

Ground

25% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Diaz rounds

even

Marcus Davis rounds

Round 1Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:24

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:50

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control1:10

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 328

Sig Strikes

52 / 203

28.3%

Sig Str %

24%

122 / 358

Total Strikes

61 / 213

1 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:24

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcus Davis	23 / 86	27 / 91	0 / 0	0
1	Nate Diaz	37 / 131	43 / 137	0 / 2	0
2	Marcus Davis	21 / 73	26 / 78	1 / 1	0
2	Nate Diaz	29 / 112	39 / 124	0 / 2	0
3	Marcus Davis	8 / 44	8 / 44	0 / 0	0
3	Nate Diaz	28 / 85	40 / 97	1 / 1	1

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Marcus Davis

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3