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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Josh Thomson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1496

Elo1355

Nate DiazvsJosh ThomsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · Saturday, April 20, 2013San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Josh Thomson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:44

Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsJosh Thomson: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(66.8%)

Actual result: Josh Thomson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Diaz at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Thomson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Josh Thomson has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
Nate Diaz has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Diaz

Red Corner

Josh Thomson

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1496

Elo

1355

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate Diaz

oldest →

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Josh ThomsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Benson Henderson · Jan 14

vs Bobby Green · Jul 14

vs Tony Ferguson · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate DiazMetricJosh Thomson

4.57

Strikes / min

2.59

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

2.12

52%

Strike defense

64%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

1.92

41%

Takedown defense

54%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate DiazJosh Thomson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Diaz(10 fights)Josh Thomson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +141.3|Blue -141.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -47.9|Blue +47.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate DiazTargetJosh Thomson

By target zone

26% acc · 81%

Head

46% acc · 64%

29% acc · 10%

Body

78% acc · 19%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

50% acc · 17%

By position

23% acc · 71%

Distance

38% acc · 36%

57% acc · 19%

Clinch

76% acc · 36%

67% acc · 10%

Ground

50% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Diaz rounds

even

Josh Thomson rounds

Round 1Josh Thomson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:25

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 2Josh Thomson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:30

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 74

Sig Strikes

36 / 71

29%

Sig Str %

50%

40 / 94

Total Strikes

44 / 79

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:55

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Thomson	15 / 33	15 / 33	1 / 1	0
1	Nate Diaz	10 / 44	20 / 54	0 / 0	0
2	Josh Thomson	21 / 38	29 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Nate Diaz	11 / 30	20 / 40	1 / 1	1

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Josh Thomson

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4