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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Nate Diaz won · SUB R2

Elo1496

Elo1516

Nate DiazvsJim MillerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · Saturday, May 5, 2012East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Nate Diaz won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:09

Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsJim Miller: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Diaz at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Diaz has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Diaz

Red Corner

Jim Miller

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1496

Elo

1516

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'8"

193.04 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate Diaz

oldest →

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate DiazMetricJim Miller

4.57

Strikes / min

2.92

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

3.43

52%

Strike defense

56%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

1.49

41%

Takedown defense

47%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate DiazJim Miller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Diaz(10 fights)Jim Miller(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.9|Blue +19.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate DiazTargetJim Miller

By target zone

39% acc · 63%

Head

22% acc · 44%

61% acc · 24%

Body

70% acc · 28%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

70% acc · 28%

By position

34% acc · 50%

Distance

27% acc · 52%

76% acc · 48%

Clinch

55% acc · 48%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Diaz rounds

even

Jim Miller rounds

Round 1Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:56

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:15Control

Round 2Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control1:41

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 98

Sig Strikes

25 / 71

46.5%

Sig Str %

34.5%

97 / 154

Total Strikes

27 / 73

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 5

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:37

Ctrl Time

1:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jim Miller	16 / 44	17 / 45	1 / 4	0
1	Nate Diaz	23 / 50	49 / 81	0 / 0	0
2	Jim Miller	9 / 27	10 / 28	0 / 1	0
2	Nate Diaz	23 / 48	48 / 73	0 / 1	2

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40