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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Dong Hyun Kim won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1491

Nate DiazvsDong Hyun KimUFC Prediction Result

UFC 125: Resolution · Saturday, January 1, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dong Hyun Kim won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsDong Hyun Kim: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Dong Hyun Kim wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Dong Hyun Kim wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dong Hyun Kim at -131 American odds

+$76 profit

$176 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dong Hyun Kim has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Diaz

Red Corner

Dong Hyun Kim

Blue Corner

+121

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-131

(57%)

1496

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate Diaz

oldest →

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Dong Hyun Kim

oldest →

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Aug 14

SUBvs Joshua Burkman · May 15

KOvs Dominic Waters · Nov 15

vs Tarec Saffiedine · Dec 16

vs Colby Covington · Jun 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate DiazMetricDong Hyun Kim

4.57

Strikes / min

2.12

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

1.89

52%

Strike defense

58%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

2.93

41%

Takedown defense

71%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate DiazDong Hyun Kim

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Diaz(10 fights)Dong Hyun Kim(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.5|Blue -5.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate DiazTargetDong Hyun Kim

By target zone

33% acc · 61%

Head

26% acc · 47%

83% acc · 28%

Body

100% acc · 5%

67% acc · 11%

Leg

82% acc · 47%

By position

27% acc · 44%

Distance

42% acc · 68%

79% acc · 53%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

36% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Diaz rounds

even

Dong Hyun Kim rounds

Round 1Dong Hyun Kim edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:30Control

Round 2Dong Hyun Kim edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:11

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:27Control

Round 3Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:46

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 85

Sig Strikes

19 / 46

37.3%

Sig Str %

42.7%

81 / 138

Total Strikes

34 / 66

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 7

100%

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:57

Ctrl Time

8:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dong Hyun Kim	8 / 13	12 / 17	1 / 1	0
1	Nate Diaz	5 / 22	13 / 32	0 / 0	1
2	Dong Hyun Kim	7 / 22	18 / 38	2 / 3	0
2	Nate Diaz	7 / 23	34 / 54	0 / 0	0
3	Dong Hyun Kim	4 / 11	4 / 11	0 / 3	0
3	Nate Diaz	24 / 40	34 / 52	1 / 1	0

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Dong Hyun Kim

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14