← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nate Diaz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1429

Nate DiazvsDonald CerroneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · Friday, December 30, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nate Diaz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(72.9%)

Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Donald Cerrone has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nate Diaz

Red Corner

Donald Cerrone

Blue Corner

+255

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-280

(74%)

1496

Elo

1429

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate Diaz

oldest →

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate DiazMetricDonald Cerrone

4.57

Strikes / min

4.41

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

4.48

52%

Strike defense

53%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

1.16

41%

Takedown defense

73%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate DiazDonald Cerrone

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Diaz(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +67.6|Blue -67.6

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate DiazTargetDonald Cerrone

By target zone

199

63% acc · 84%

Head

41% acc · 58%

82% acc · 16%

Body

88% acc · 24%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

85% acc · 18%

By position

228

66% acc · 96%

Distance

50% acc · 88%

59% acc · 4%

Clinch

86% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Diaz rounds

even

Donald Cerrone rounds

Round 1Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes82

Takedowns0

Control0:52

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes69

Takedowns0

Control0:08

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes87

Takedowns0

Control0:04

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

238 / 362

Sig Strikes

96 / 182

65%

Sig Str %

52.7%

260 / 391

Total Strikes

104 / 193

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:04

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Donald Cerrone	35 / 60	36 / 62	0 / 0
1	Nate Diaz	82 / 122	98 / 143	0 / 2
2	Donald Cerrone	28 / 51	31 / 54	0 / 0
2	Nate Diaz	69 / 112	72 / 115	0 / 0
3	Donald Cerrone	33 / 71	37 / 77	0 / 0
3	Nate Diaz	87 / 128	90 / 133	0 / 0

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37