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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Conor McGregor won · M-DEC R5

Elo1496

Elo1474

Nate DiazvsConor McGregorUFC Prediction Result

UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · Saturday, August 20, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Conor McGregor won

M-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsConor McGregor: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Conor McGregor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Diaz at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Conor McGregor has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Conor McGregor has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nate Diaz

Red Corner

Conor McGregor

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1496

Elo

1474

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'9"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nate Diaz

oldest →

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Mar 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Conor McGregorL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21

KOvs Max Holloway · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nate DiazMetricConor McGregor

4.57

Strikes / min

5.32

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

4.66

52%

Strike defense

54%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

0.67

41%

Takedown defense

66%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nate DiazConor McGregor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nate Diaz(10 fights)Conor McGregor(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.2|Blue -22.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nate DiazTargetConor McGregor

By target zone

107

42% acc · 64%

Head

46% acc · 60%

70% acc · 30%

Body

90% acc · 16%

56% acc · 5%

Leg

89% acc · 24%

By position

39% acc · 53%

Distance

137

54% acc · 84%

69% acc · 46%

Clinch

84% acc · 16%

25% acc · 1%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nate Diaz rounds

even

Conor McGregor rounds

Round 1Conor McGregor edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Conor McGregor edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:30

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

2Knockdowns

Round 3Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control1:31

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 4Conor McGregor edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control1:07

46Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 5Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:42

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

166 / 343

Sig Strikes

164 / 286

47.6%

Sig Str %

57.4%

252 / 435

Total Strikes

197 / 322

1 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

8.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:50

Ctrl Time

1:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Conor McGregor	34 / 58	34 / 58	0 / 0
1	Nate Diaz	25 / 73	25 / 73	0 / 0
2	Conor McGregor	34 / 70	36 / 73	0 / 0
2	Nate Diaz	37 / 76	51 / 92	0 / 0
3	Conor McGregor	26 / 45	37 / 58	0 / 0
3	Nate Diaz	49 / 87	79 / 117	0 / 2
4	Nate Diaz	36 / 63	48 / 76	0 / 1
4	Conor McGregor	46 / 76	56 / 86	0 / 0
5	Conor McGregor	24 / 37	34 / 47	0 / 1
5	Nate Diaz	19 / 44	49 / 77	1 / 4

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Conor McGregor

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15