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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mike Davis won · SUB R2

Elo1497

Elo1495

Natan LevyvsMike DavisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Saturday, March 16, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mike Davis won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:43

Style matchupNatan Levy: WrestlervsMike Davis: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mike Davis wins(61.5%)

Actual result: Mike Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Davis has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Natan Levy (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Natan Levy

Red Corner

Mike Davis

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1497

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Natan LevyW2 streak

oldest →

vs Rafa Garcia · Nov 21

vs Mike Breeden · Apr 22

vs Genaro Valdez · Dec 22

latest

Mike Davis

oldest →

vs Mason Jones · Jan 21

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Oct 22

vs Fares Ziam · Feb 25

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Jul 25

DECvs Nurullo Aliev · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Natan LevyMetricMike Davis

3.70

Strikes / min

4.73

3.19

Strikes absorbed / min

5.23

58%

Strike defense

54%

5.03

TDs / 15 min

2.40

41%

Takedown defense

60%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap-0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Natan LevyMike Davis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Natan Levy(4 fights)Mike Davis(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Natan LevyTargetMike Davis

By target zone

67% acc · 25%

Head

50% acc · 100%

100% acc · 63%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

83% acc · 63%

Distance

50% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 38%

Ground

40% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Natan Levy rounds

even

Mike Davis rounds

Round 1Mike Davis edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:34

Knockdowns0

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:46Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 9

Sig Strikes

3 / 7

87.5%

Sig Str %

41.5%

18 / 20

Total Strikes

10 / 15

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

5:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Davis	2 / 4	4 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Natan Levy	5 / 5	15 / 16	1 / 1	0
2	Mike Davis	1 / 3	6 / 8	0 / 0	1
2	Natan Levy	3 / 4	3 / 4	0 / 0	0

Natan Levy

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Mike Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9