← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Natan Levy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1496

Natan LevyvsMike BreedenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · Saturday, April 30, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Natan Levy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNatan Levy: WrestlervsMike Breeden: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Natan Levy wins(58.4%)

Actual result: Natan Levy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Natan Levy at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Natan Levy has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mike Breeden has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Natan Levy (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Natan Levy

Red Corner

Mike Breeden

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1497

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Natan Levy

oldest →

vs Rafa Garcia · Nov 21

vs Genaro Valdez · Dec 22

SUBvs Mike Davis · Mar 24

latest

Mike Breeden

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 21

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Aug 23

KOvs Anshul Jubli · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Natan LevyMetricMike Breeden

3.70

Strikes / min

5.75

3.19

Strikes absorbed / min

7.28

58%

Strike defense

42%

5.03

TDs / 15 min

0.98

41%

Takedown defense

67%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51Δ 2.04 — meaningful gap-1.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Natan LevyMike Breeden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Natan Levy(4 fights)Mike Breeden(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Natan LevyTargetMike Breeden

By target zone

59% acc · 74%

Head

41% acc · 62%

90% acc · 21%

Body

76% acc · 38%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

65% acc · 87%

Distance

48% acc · 86%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

59% acc · 13%

89% acc · 9%

Ground

67% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Natan Levy rounds

even

Mike Breeden rounds

Round 1Natan Levy edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control0:39

19Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Natan Levy edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns7

Control2:40

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 3Mike Breeden edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:20

62Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

92 / 141

Sig Strikes

104 / 210

66.7%

Sig Str %

48%

99 / 150

Total Strikes

115 / 221

9 / 16

TDs

3 / 4

62.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:39

Ctrl Time

1:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Breeden	19 / 45	20 / 46	3 / 3
1	Natan Levy	25 / 41	26 / 42	2 / 2
2	Mike Breeden	23 / 45	24 / 46	0 / 1
2	Natan Levy	21 / 27	27 / 35	7 / 8
3	Mike Breeden	62 / 120	71 / 129	0 / 0
3	Natan Levy	46 / 73	46 / 73	0 / 6

Natan Levy

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Mike Breeden

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4