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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Natan Levy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1465

Natan LevyvsGenaro ValdezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Saturday, December 3, 2022Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Natan Levy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNatan Levy: WrestlervsGenaro Valdez: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Natan Levy wins(80.5%)

Actual result: Natan Levy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Natan Levy at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Natan Levy has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Natan Levy (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Natan Levy

Red Corner

Genaro Valdez

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1497

Elo

1465

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Natan Levy

oldest →

vs Rafa Garcia · Nov 21

vs Mike Breeden · Apr 22

SUBvs Mike Davis · Mar 24

latest

Genaro ValdezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Frevola · Jan 22

vs Evan Elder · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Natan LevyMetricGenaro Valdez

3.70

Strikes / min

4.08

3.19

Strikes absorbed / min

7.16

58%

Strike defense

48%

5.03

TDs / 15 min

1.54

41%

Takedown defense

36%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51Δ 3.59 — meaningful gap-3.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Natan LevyGenaro Valdez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Natan Levy(4 fights)Genaro Valdez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.6|Blue -32.6

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Natan LevyTargetGenaro Valdez

By target zone

28% acc · 33%

Head

21% acc · 53%

74% acc · 37%

Body

45% acc · 20%

91% acc · 30%

Leg

87% acc · 27%

By position

49% acc · 99%

Distance

28% acc · 84%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

71% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Natan Levy rounds

even

Genaro Valdez rounds

Round 1Natan Levy edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:19

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Natan Levy edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns5

Control2:21

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 135

Sig Strikes

49 / 158

49.3%

Sig Str %

29.7%

69 / 137

Total Strikes

62 / 173

6 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

52%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:40

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Genaro Valdez	19 / 60	19 / 60	0 / 0
1	Natan Levy	34 / 70	34 / 70	0 / 0
2	Genaro Valdez	21 / 59	30 / 68	0 / 0
2	Natan Levy	13 / 30	13 / 30	1 / 3
3	Genaro Valdez	9 / 39	13 / 45	0 / 0
3	Natan Levy	20 / 35	22 / 37	5 / 7

Natan Levy

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Genaro Valdez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3