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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Natalia Silva won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1550

Elo1489

Natalia SilvavsVictoria LeonardoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · Saturday, May 20, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Natalia Silva won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:58

Style matchupNatalia Silva: Elusive strikervsVictoria Leonardo: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Natalia Silva wins(78.9%)

Actual result: Natalia Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Natalia Silva at -1200 American odds

+$8 profit

$108 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Natalia Silva enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Natalia Silva has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Natalia Silva has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Natalia Silva (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Natalia Silva

Red Corner

Victoria Leonardo

Blue Corner

-1200

(92%)

Vegas Odds

+630

(14%)

1550

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Natalia SilvaW5 streak

oldest →

vs Andrea Lee · Aug 23

vs Viviane Araujo · Feb 24

vs Jessica Andrade · Sep 24

vs Alexa Grasso · May 25

vs Rose Namajunas · Jan 26

latest

Victoria Leonardo

oldest →

KOvs Manon Fiorot · Jan 21

KOvs Melissa Gatto · Aug 21

vs Mandy Bohm · Jul 22

KOvs Wang Cong · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Natalia SilvaMetricVictoria Leonardo

4.81

Strikes / min

3.22

2.36

Strikes absorbed / min

4.81

66%

Strike defense

47%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.57

90%

Takedown defense

71%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.45Δ 4.04 — meaningful gap-1.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Natalia SilvaVictoria Leonardo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Natalia Silva(8 fights)Victoria Leonardo(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +61.4|Blue -61.4

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Natalia SilvaTargetVictoria Leonardo

By target zone

39% acc · 80%

Head

43% acc · 86%

100% acc · 10%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Natalia Silva rounds

even

Victoria Leonardo rounds

Round 1Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:16

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 45

Sig Strikes

7 / 18

44%

Sig Str %

38%

21 / 46

Total Strikes

7 / 18

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Victoria Leonardo	7 / 18	7 / 18	0 / 1	0
1	Natalia Silva	20 / 45	21 / 46	0 / 0	0

Natalia Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8

Victoria Leonardo

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5